Residents of South Australia have always lived and experienced the serious consequences of bushfires, but unfortunately, climate change is increasing fire danger weather and thus increasing the future risks of fires. In the future, South Australia is very likely to experience an increased number of days with extreme fire danger. Due to the Adelaide area comprising of mainly dry bushland, especially in the Adelaide Hills (areas where a substantial proportion of the Adelaide population lives), it is very prone to bushfires. As fire severity and intensity is expected to increase substantially in coming decades, these areas are at high risk. Two major future projections for South Australia are the increased risk of bushfires due changing climates and the consequential economic impacts.
The enhanced greenhouse effect (EGE), in the long term, results in a net increase in temperature. Greenhouses gases that are released into the atmosphere are capable of absorbing the infra-red radiation which are reflected and released from the Earth’s surface, and then re-emitting the radiation back into the atmosphere. This constant reabsorption and re-emitting alters the exchange rate of energy (in the form of heat) into and out of the atmosphere (Nguyen, 2013). The effect of increased temperature could significantly increase the intensity and frequency of bushfires in South Australia, by altering the climate.
Bushfires require fuel in order to start, and most commonly the perfect materials for bushfires are found in the Adelaide area, such as the bushland affected by the Sampson Flat Bushfire, as they become highly combustible under dry and hot conditions. Adelaide is known for exceedingly hot and dry summers, with minimal rainfall (Australian Government, 2015). Unfortunately, these conditions are the criteria for bushfires to start and thrive. Therefore, if temperatures are only expected to increase in the future, the Adelaide area is increasingly susceptible to bushfires.
Figure 7. An example of the dry grasslands found in the affected bushfire areas (Primary Source)
The increased risk of bushfires impacts South Australia may also result in an increase of resources for our emergency services and fire management agencies. It has been estimated that by the year 2030, the number of professional firefighters in Australia will need to approximately double in comparison to 2010, to keep up to pace with the increased population, asset values and fire danger weather (Deloitte Access Economics, 2014). This will likely put a strain on the state financially, without taking into account the various insurance claims and repairs needed to compensate all those affected by the fires.
Including the loss of life, livelihoods, property damage and emergency responses, the economic cost of bushfires is very high. It is estimated that the total economic costs of bushfires is $337 million per year in Australia and is expected to increase to $800 million by the year 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2014). In the same time frame, the costs in South Australia are expected to increase from $44 million to potentially reaching $79 million.
Sampson Flat Bushfires 